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As we grow up, we believe that by and large, we should not interfere with other people's
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business. And it seems natural to transplant this thinking from individuals to countries.
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We should not interfere with another country's internal affairs. After all, we don't like
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it if other countries interfere with our own internal affairs, right? Well, what if it's
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not quite that simple? What if countries are not like people? What if geopolitics, unlike
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trade between individuals, is often a zero-sum game? What should we do about Maldives?
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Welcome to The Seen and the Unseen, our weekly podcast on economics, politics and behavioral
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science. Please welcome your host, Amit Barma.
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Welcome to The Seen and the Unseen. Before we begin this episode, a quick word from our
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at IndianColors.com, Colors with an OU. Now let's get on with the show. My guest today
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is my friend Pranay Kutasane, a fellow at the Takshashila Institution and the editor
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in charge of international affairs at Pragati, the magazine I edit at ThinkPragati.com. Pranay
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has been writing a lot about the crisis in Maldives, and he's one of the foreign policy
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experts I respect the most anywhere in the world, so I'm delighted to have him on the
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show today. Pranay, welcome to the Scene in the Unseen. Hi Amit, it's good to be back.
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Pranay, tell me a little bit about what's happening in the Maldives, and why should
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we care? Okay, so a lot of political developments happened in Maldives, very interesting ones.
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So the story starts around six years back. So there was one Mr. Gayoom who was ruling
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Maldives for a long time, even though this was a presidential democracy. He ruled for
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a long time, and then we had the first democratically elected president, Mohammed Nasheed, a few
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years back, around seven years back. And then Nasheed was replaced by another person, and
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he was just unceremoniously thrown out. And then we went to the current president who
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is Yamin. So what happened off late was all these people who are the opposition to Yamin
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were basically declared persona non grata in Maldives, and there were around 12 political
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prisoners who were taken up, and the Supreme Court had convicted all of them. Now on 1st
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Feb, this changed. So the Supreme Court said that this earlier conviction was wrong, and
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these political prisoners should be freed. And that's when all hell breaks loose. So
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Yamin says that no, this is not done. He declares presidential emergency, which means that Supreme
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Court is no longer in charge of the political developments that are happening there. And
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he again arrests all the Supreme Court judges. Also, he arrests a bunch of political people.
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And then so that was extended till 15 days. He said that emergency would last for 15 days.
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Now just two days back, another presidential decree has been issued, and this emergency
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will extend for another 30 days. So these are the political developments that have taken
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place. But there are a lot of geopolitical angles to this. This is just the domestic
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part. But the geopolitical angle is that China is seen to be backing Yamin. And even six
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years back after, Nashi that actually awarded a contract to GMR, which was an Indian company
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for building their airport, which was the one very big thing for Maldives. And his successor
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just said ousted GMR from this contract. And then an international tribunal actually said
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that you need to pay money back to GMR. This is not just done. And the Yamin got money
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from China, from Saudi Arabia, et cetera, and gave this money to GMR and knocked them
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off the project. And the project was again started with Saudi Arabia and Chinese help.
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So this is the geopolitical context here. So yeah, that's pretty much what has happened
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till now. Right. So why should we care? What role has Maldives played in our foreign policy
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so far? And it's small island somewhere else. The government has changed. You know, a guy
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who was democratically elected has declared himself has effectively become a dictator,
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imprisoned everybody, seen that happen in various places across the world. Let it play
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out. Why does it affect us? Yeah, it does affect us. So, okay, let's take a background.
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Earlier, we had recorded an episode on changing behaviors of smaller states in the Indian
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subcontinent. So it ties into this. Of course, now smaller countries in India's neighborhood
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are no longer, you know, tied to India. They are not coupled with India that closely. And
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they will look to balance India's overpowering influence with other countries, which is all
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fine. So let me clarify that before we move on. Earlier, small countries were because
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they were so close to us were almost dependent on our, you know, benevolence and therefore
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they were tied to us in terms of foreign policy, but now they are becoming more and more prosperous,
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which is a good thing and are also therefore becoming slightly independent. Yeah, not just
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that. And earlier we didn't have this globalization as a concept, right? So because the markets
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were not open, they were tied with India just because of the link and India was the biggest
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power in the neighborhood. After globalization that changed, they had more options. And now
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even more so because for each of these countries, if you see actually India is the only country
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which is in between all the South Asian countries, right? No other South Asian countries connected
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to the other one apart, except going through India. So we are like the hub. Yeah. And we
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are the biggest one. So overwhelmingly big. So it is very genuine for other countries
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to feel that we need to balance the power of India in our country. And that's all fine.
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And now they have an option because China is also interested in this region. So they
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can always play China with India in this and that's all fine. But where I would draw the
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line here is if there is anything that these countries are doing, which are directly against
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Indian national interests, then India has to stand up there. And if, as I explained,
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the president just poked India in the eye, right? And intentionally getting rid of an
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Indian company and then trying to boast how the Chinese are going to help us is just showing
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that they can defy whatever India's national interests are. And still there won't be any
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consequences for that. There's a second point is that the ousted president, Mohammed Nasheed,
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he went out on Twitter and he said that it would be great if India could intervene and
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restore democracy. So now we have a situation in which there is someone who's friendly to
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India, a powerful political force, and he's asking for India's help. So now just imagine
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if India doesn't do anything on this, what would be the lesson that other friendly powers
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in other countries will draw with respect to India? A person at the margin would think
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that India is not a credible partner. Why should I even deal with India? Why should
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I even have a friendly relationship with India? Because it's just not a credible partner.
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But just where devil's advocate, you could also argue that yes, India should always uphold
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its word, which it makes to friendly nations. But at the same time, this is an individual.
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It's not a friendly nation. This is Nasheed, the individual who's no longer in power. And
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India's approach could simply be that what does it matter if that small island is friends
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with us or not? What is the threat to India's interests over here?
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Yeah, right. So see, the foreign policy game in any region is that you need to have friendly
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relationships or friendly regimes in one country or the other so that you can use it for mutual
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benefit. And here you clearly have a case where that's not happening. So one, you would
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want that to change. You would either want Yameen to be more friendly to you, at least
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in terms of respecting Indian national interests. And if not that, then because it's a small
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country, you can afford to have someone else there. I mean, Malaysia's capital is 2.5 square
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kilometers. It's not as if Indian military forces can't intervene. So that is one angle.
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So India's national interests here are affected in a few ways. So first, because China is
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a willing supporter to this regime, at least it has tried to be so, there are fears that
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over time, they will actually build a military base there. In fact, the Yameen has already
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leased some of their islands to the Chinese. So there are, there is a fear that five to
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six years later, there might be a military base of China which might come here and that
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would give them a big advantage. Yes, that will definitely give them a big
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advantage because they don't have any significant presence in the Indian Ocean. They have something
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in Djibouti, but nothing near India, something which is that close to India will be a big,
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big advantage for them. So there is Diego Garcia as well, which is a military base of
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the US and US has adopted a very hands-off approach. I think they are in agreement with
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India's stance on this. So this is a perfect test case actually for India to demonstrate
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that if there are friendly powers in the neighborhood, India will go back and help them. The costs
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are not very high for India to intervene. So what should we do?
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Okay. So actually just things what, what happened two, three days back was M.E.A., Ministry
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of External Affairs in India actually issued a statement.
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Since it's a couple of days back, I should clarify that we are recording this on Thursday
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the 22nd and this episode releases on Monday the 25th. So those are sort of the timelines.
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Right. So what happened was Ministry of External Affairs did issue a statement that democracy
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should be restored. The Supreme Court ruling on first web should again be restored and
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things like that. And Yamin just didn't listen to that. And they, he again extended the emergency
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for 30 days. Okay. So this is what has happened. Now this is clearly Yamin demonstrating that
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he just doesn't care about India. So all the other options of people calling that we should
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do some diplomatic, you know, diplomatic outreach to Yamin. The time for all that is long gone.
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And it simply won't work. You know that. Exactly. And it's gone six years back since
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the time the GMR incident happened. The time for that is not now. It was six years back.
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So now the only option is India should intervene and should take Yamin out. And actually my
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colleague Nitin Pai had written a sort of a roadmap for this. So he had suggested that
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one thing that could be done is first the Indian army reaches their army and the Navy.
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And after that Yamin is replaced and the next constitutional head would be the vice president.
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So he is brought to power. And after that there is an election coming up. So an election
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is held and based on whatever happens in the election, the ruling party changes. So that
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should be the mode. One interesting thing that India can do is while intervening in
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all this, it can make sure that the contracts that Maldives has already made with the Chinese
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companies, they don't go away, you know, because that will be more acrimonious. Even China
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will feel unsettled. So that could be managed. So behave honorably basically. Yes. Yes. And
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stand up to our national interests. So I have three hypothetical questions for you just
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to play devil's advocate and sort of try and understand the nuances of this, which I don't,
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which I'm just coming to grips with that. You're saying that we should intervene now
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because A, the regime in charge is unfriendly with us. B, the regime in charge has behaved
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dictatorially imprisoned its opponents in the Supreme court and it's effectively a dictatorship.
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And C, most importantly, because our interests are threatened by this because China could
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build military bases there, which would be a disaster for us and would shift the balance
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of power in the in South Asia. And there's a D here because we have a person, a former
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president was democratically elected who is friendly towards India. Hypothetical question
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number one, supposing, uh, Yamin was democratically elected as, as, as he was, and supposing he
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didn't do any of this, but was allowing the Chinese to build those military bases. So
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it would still be against our national interest, but would we then have an imperative to go
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out and replace him? Yes, we would. Even if he was a democratically elected. Yes. Yes.
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Because we have to act in a national interest. Exactly. Yeah. We have, see, uh, it's not,
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we have to understand that it's not as if, uh, Maldives is, uh, you know, it's a tributary
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of India. It's a mutually, it's a relationship under international, uh, conduct. And of course
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there's a big power differential, but India has gone out of the way and there are, uh,
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trade contacts also, um, all the Maldives self-defense forces, they get a lot of training
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in from India, their, uh, helicopters in their self-defense forces are actually Indian made.
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So there are a lot of those connections which India has already done, you know? So, uh,
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if in spite of all this, there is anyone democratically elected or not, who is, uh, poking India in
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the eye by doing things which are directly against Indian national interests and India
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has no other option but to stand for it. So follow up question, if we didn't have these
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historic relationship with them, where we trained their special forces and you know,
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where we were so close to them, uh, if we didn't have those relationships and if it
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was just an independent place, leaving everybody alone and minding their own business and they
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now invited the Chinese to build up a base, would we then nevertheless be justified because
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we have to look after our own interests? Yes, yes. Absolutely. So what you would say here
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is that, look, let's be realistic. Let's not have some high notions of what is moral behavior.
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The point is China would do all of these things. China would have no boundaries in terms of
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what it would do to enhance his national power. And for our own sake, we need to counter that
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and therefore we should have no qualms either. Exactly. Yeah. I have never made the argument
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for, uh, we should intervene for the preservation of democracy. Things like what the U S does.
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We know the difference between what the new cons optics don't apply here. So the second
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hypothetical question, supposing we do exactly as Nathan said, we go in there, we occupy
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the place, we get Yamin out. Uh, we put the other guy in charge, whoever is the next in
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line and we have free democratic elections. What if Yamin wins again? Yeah. Then we'll
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have to lump it. We'll have to live with it. Uh, and then he invites a Chinese army. Yeah.
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Then we'll have to live with it. But, uh, I think the overall assessment is that Yamin
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has been extremely unpopular with what he's done. So there, of course there will be a
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level of risk that we have to assess. But given that, uh, previous democratically elected
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president is also hugely popular. I think these are risks which India can easily manage.
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So you'd say our intervention should be to the extent of going out there and replacing
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the regime and hoping the next regime behaves correctly, but we should not install a puppet.
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We should let democracy play itself out. And if it turns out that the same guy comes to
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power and is even more pro Chinese now, obviously, then we should just come back. No, but he
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won't be more pro Chinese because we would have demonstrated that there are costs to
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be had when certain things which are done to India. But if we were to come back, we
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would also have demonstrated that there would be certain limits to our actions and we're
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not actually going to kill him or yeah, but we always have an option to do that again.
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That can be a threat and that next time there won't be any promises of elections. Right.
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Really interesting. So what's the foreign policy? What's the foreign policy establishments
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thinking on this in India? I think now after that MEA statement which came out, it clearly
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demonstrates that the Indian government is very serious about. I mean, but I just think
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it took too long, right? Since six years, this has been happening and we should have
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preempted that certain things would have happened here and we should have taken actions much
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upfront. And now that we've let six years pass, our options have to be at a higher escalatory
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level because the soft options are gone. Is it too late? I don't think so. I think it
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is still manageable. In fact, a couple of days ago, again, there were news reports that
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Indian Navy and army etc are already conducting joint exercises in the vicinity of Maldives.
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So I think the military establishment is also ready and we've done this before. Like in
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1988, we had intervened in Maldives. The circumstances were slightly different, but I think Indian
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military is more than capable to do something like this. What if China decides to put its
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foot down? Is it a chance of escalation into a full blown war? I don't think so. So and
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even if that is the case, then that is all the more reason that India should preempt
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it. So earlier there were news items again that some Chinese ships and frigates were
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actually spotted in the Indian Ocean. But I don't think that was related to Maldives
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because they returned back and they do this in two, three months. In either case, they
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have their regular round. So now if the alternative scenario is that what if China comes into
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Maldives? So I mean, we can't be waiting for the Chinese to come there and then say what
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are our options, right? It's better to preempt that and prevent Chinese from coming there
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because once they come, then what are our options after that? Then the game is over.
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So that is the case and we do what Nitin said now and we conduct elections there and Yamin
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wins again. Your recommendation is that we come back. But what if the Chinese go there
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and all this happens anyway? I think we can manage after that because once we demonstrate
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that there are consequences to be had and there can be even higher consequences to be
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had, that will be enough of a deterrent. So even if the situation seems the same, we are
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a different India and they look at us differently. So let's kind of take a step back now and
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talk about South Asia. South Asia has changed a lot in foreign policy terms in the last
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couple of decades. China has become much more powerful and recently under Donald Trump,
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the US seems to have taken a step back and become more ambiguous about some of its dealings
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and India has had to adjust its mindset accordingly. We recently had some kind of conflicts involving
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the Rohingyas, for example, which was a dilemma for us and then Doklam where there was a standoff
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with the Chinese. What's happening in South Asia? Okay, so let me put it in this way first
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on Doklam. Let's say in Doklam, I think India aptly demonstrated that the things that China
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does in South China Sea where it just occupies land and then says, hey, this was my island
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from long time back and they start doing construction, etc. I think India demonstrated in Doklam
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that India won't allow that to happen and India is not a country which China can take
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for a ride and the strategy that it adopted there in South China Sea won't operate here.
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So that was a positive thing. With respect to the neighbors, as I earlier said, now neighbors
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always have an option. It is perfectly in their national interest to balance India's
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overwhelming influence with that of China. Which is a good thing, which is fine. Yeah,
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which is fine. As long as it does not in direct confrontation with India, then we should be
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all right with it. On the Rohingyas issue, I think we missed an opportunity to demonstrate
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that we are what we call ourselves a net security provider, right? That's what India likes to
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call itself. But what does it mean? Explain that. Yeah, it just means that overall India
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will provide more security to in the Indian Ocean region, even to other countries. Right.
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So now in the Rohingya case, for example, at a time when a genocide was taking place,
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there were voices within the Indian establishment which were talking about deporting the 40,000
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Rohingyas who are already there in India. It just didn't make sense. It defies all
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logic, you know, even foreign policy, national interest logic, even right. Why should we
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be talking about deportation of those people when there is a huge amount of influx from
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Myanmar anyways? And what we could have done again is to back Bangladesh to the hill because
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Bangladesh took the lead. And they acted very honorably. Yes, exactly. And again, there
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we had Sheikh Hasina who was a great friend of India's and they are going to go to elections
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next year. So it is all the more in India's interest to make sure that Sheikh Hasina comes
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out winning on this count. So these are the specific issues, Doklam and Rohingyas. But
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overall, tell me a little bit about how the balance of power is sort of shifting and the
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challenges that we confront as a result in South Asia.
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Okay. So in the Indian subcontinent, what you have is, as I said, there is a huge power
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asymmetry. And so the China is an alternative, it is coming in. And what has happened in
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the past few years is India is trying to manage this, the fact that China is more provocative
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and the fact that these countries are increasing their relationship with China. So that is
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the flux that we are operating in. With regards to and on that count, leave Pakistan aside
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because that there the equation is very different. But in all the other countries, this equation
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is just playing out. So there are regime changes, there are elections, etc., which are happening
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and all of them are happening in the backdrop of this. Will the new leader support China
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more or support India more? That's how the narratives are playing out. But I think in
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India's case and for all the neighborhood countries, they realize that they have a lot
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of relationship, a lot of trade. It's very difficult for them to go around the geography
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So you are all in those interwoven networks and you can't just take a scissor and cut
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Exactly. So that relationship is understood and it's very difficult to get out of a good
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relationship with India. They can't afford it basically. So in such circumstances, what
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India should do is India should make clear what are its red lines in terms of what these
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countries can, they can do whatever they want as long as it doesn't directly affect Indian
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national interest. And as long as those red lines are met, we should be OK to manage with
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And where does Pakistan come in all of this? I mean, China is inching closer to Pakistan
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for obvious reasons to use them as a counterweight against us. How has that equation changed?
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I mean, should we be worried?
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Yeah, there are many schools of thought on this. One thing is, yes, people do feel now
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Pakistan used to have a backer called the US. Now the Pakistani military is another
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backer called China. So should we be worried? I think yes, we should be worried. What will
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happen is in the short term, the military complex will strengthen because now it has
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someone to back it and its support with the US is winning. So in the short term, yes.
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But overall, what I feel is as China gets involved more and more with Pakistan, that
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familiarity is definitely going to breed contempt and you will have a lot of acrimony between
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the two. Just imagine there are if there will be Chinese people operating in Guadar and
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in Balochistan, which are again very sensitive areas and with the language gap and things
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like that, there will be a lot of acrimony. So I think we should wait and watch for now.
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And I don't necessarily think this is very negative for India.
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Right. And how does a foreign policy establishment need to change its view in light of all these
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South Asia overall. I mean, everything, you know, from Doklam to Rohingyas to Maldives
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Yeah. So I think the way we have to look at this is this way. Okay. We think that whatever
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China is doing is against India, but that's not the case. Right. There is a power play
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going on between US and China. So China wants to become what US is. And that is the larger
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game which is playing out. Now, our national interest is what can we do in this ongoing
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power play, which benefits us, which means we have to do things with US and with China
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as well. Right. On certain things like climate change, etc. Our positions are closer to China
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rather than that of the US. So we have to try and ensure that we have enough options
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available so that we can extract benefits from both US and China and pursue our bigger
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goal of prosperity for Indians. Right. All foreign policies finally for that. And whatever
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requires to be done in order to ensure prosperity for Indians, we have to do that.
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And one of the first things would be to stop China from overstepping in the Indian Ocean
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and do something about Maldives.
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Thank you so much for talking to us. I learned a lot talking to you.
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If you enjoyed listening to the show, do follow Pranay on Twitter at Pranay Kotas, P-R-A-N-A-Y-K-O-T-A-S,
#
all one word. You can follow me at Amit Verma, A-M-I-T-V-A-R-M-A. You can browse past episodes
#
of The Scene and the Unseen at sceneunseen.in. Pranay has been on the show before and he's
#
spoken about foreign policy with me. So do check that out. Thank you so much for listening.
#
If you enjoyed listening to The Scene and the Unseen, check out another hit show from
#
Indusworks Media Networks, Cyrus Says, which is hosted by my old colleague from MTV, Cyrus
#
Brocha. You can download it on any podcasting network.
#
As you can see, we have a podcast listener in his natural habitat. Billions of years
#
of evolution have led him to this point. He's on his way to work and listening to podcasts
#
makes his miserable day better. He will now head to work and use all his knowledge to
#
communicate with other colleagues and possibly future mates. You can find more of his species
#
on ivyampodcasts.com, your one stop destination where you can check out all the coolest Indian
#
podcasts. Happy listening.
